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Stop us if you’ve heard this one before: A newly named Italian prime minister declares he will finally enact changes to the country’s bureaucratic and legal structures to get the third-largest EU economy rolling again. This time, it’s Mario Draghi—of euro-savior fame—who will also be coordinating efforts to secure €200 billion in funding from the EU’s inaugural stimulus package raising debt as an entity. Italy, whose economy has been deeply damaged by COVID-19, is set to receive more funds than any other country. If the EU plan is to succeed, Italy must arguably play a big part in the success. 

Supply/Demand is a semi-regular feature of the Artisan Canvas rounding up interesting and quirky subjects from across the Internet with a focus on economic and business trends. A good rule of thumb among the Artisan Canvas editorial staff is “never reason from a price change.” With that in mind, we present our latest edition of Supply/Demand.

As much of the world attempts to get business back to pre-pandemic norms, global supply chains face an added challenge in the form of shifting consumer preferences. As consumers and employees do more from home, this “new normal” has had some interesting impacts.

Among the new US administration’s top priorities is another round of stimulus. Though the bill looks different from the measures previously passed under a more divided government, it doesn’t go as far as the Democrat-controlled House went in its May 2020 $3 trillion proposal. 

Well, they did it: The UK and EU signed a trade deal mere days before a no-deal Brexit would have become official. Beyond avoiding higher tariffs and significant trading delays , the agreement also frees the UK to seek separate trade deals with the US and other major partners—something that has, by and large, been on hold. Both sides won some important concessions:

Amid a year peppered with trade disputes, Brexit talks and the pandemic’s all-encompassing impacts, long-time Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s decision to step down may have gotten short shrift—a bit surprising, given Japan is the world’s third-largest economy. As Japan also looks to recover from the COVID’s economic disruption (destruction?), the question becomes whether new prime minister Yoshihide Suga and his already eponymously nicknamed economic plan, Suganomics, can finally usher in for Japan a new dawn of economic relevance. Perhaps not surprisingly, there are reasons for hope as well as for concern. 

The recent cancellation of Ant’s IPO and investigation of Alibaba by the Chinese government has sparked a wide-ranging discussion about the outlook for Chinese technology companies heading into 2021.

A common refrain in 2020: Oil prices took a massive hit this year. Indeed, the US crude oil futures markets went haywire in April when WTI prices went negative—an anomaly owing to scarce storage. The spot price for Brent crude, the global benchmark, approached $10/barrel in April. This cratering followed a devastating one-two punch in early 2020. As for many other commodities, demand for hydrocarbons effectively halted amid COVID-19-induced economic shutdowns. But Saudi Arabia and Russia simultaneously ramped up production as they engaged in an ill-fated (ill-timed, certainly) oil price war. As the world slowly climbs out of economic malaise—particularly China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer—and OPEC relations return to something resembling normalcy, it seems logical to expect oil markets to also return to normal. As is often the case, reality is likely to prove slightly more complicated.

If ever a company’s president and most senior executive publicly expresses a hunch about something that company might well do, it’s notable. Even more so when the c-suite officer is Madame Lagarde of the European Central Bank (ECB), who coyly alluded to the adoption of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Regarding a crypto coin for the euro zone, she said, “My hunch is that it will come.… If it’s cheaper, faster, more secure for the users then we should explore it. If it’s going to contribute to a better monetary sovereignty, a better autonomy for the euro area, I think we should explore it.” But is a CBDC faster, cheaper, more secure? Would it contribute to monetary sovereignty and euro-area autonomy? What are those things, anyway?

To date, deadlines around Brexit haven’t actually proven to be deadlines as such—they’ve been at best guidelines. But with December 31 around the corner, the risk the UK and EU will henceforth operate under the rather tariff-heavy World Trade Organization rules looms. Still at issue are three major sticking points.

There’s been something of a trend in recent years away from trade pacts among large blocs and toward more bilateral agreements. Naturally, there are notable exceptions—the renegotiated NAFTA and the recently agreed Asia Pacific pact jump immediately to mind—but relative to the number of recently agreed bilateral treaties, the momentum seems to have swung in favor of the latter. Perhaps because bilateral agreements are easier to hammer out—a potentially significant factor in an overall tenser geopolitical environment. Whether it’s that simple or something deeper is at work is up for debate—which we’ll leave to the political scientists—but with some big political shifts among major countries in the offing (namely, the US, China, and the UK), it’s worth evaluating the potential direction of future trade deals as we head into 2021.