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EMsights Capital Group

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Artisan Partners EMsights Capital Group applies deep fundamental research and robust operational capabilities across a broad opportunity set in order to uncover knowledge gaps across global markets. By exploiting knowledge gaps, the team is well positioned to discover idiosyncratic opportunities that provide compelling risk-adjusted long-term return potential.

 

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      • A Glimmer of Gold in the Pacific

        07 February 2024   |  

        Hiding behind the picturesque beaches, tropical rainforests, and immense coral reef biodiversity of Papua New Guinea is a precarious socio-economic situation. High unemployment, crime and a volatile political landscape often dominate the headlines of the natural-resource rich pacific nation and have hindered economic development. However, tailwinds from ongoing and prospective natural resource projects along with a recent push for fiscal reforms poise the country for an upswing and position it for increasing geopolitical importance.

      • Democracy’s Blockbuster Year

        23 January 2024   |  

        2024 is expected to be one of the biggest election years on record with more than half of the world’s population planning to go to the polls. This busy election calendar comes at a particularly opportune time as geo-political tensions are running high across the globe.

      • Thoughts and Takeaways From The EMsights Annual Research Retreat

        03 January 2024   |  

        The EMsights Capital Group held their annual research retreat in December. For two days the investment team gathered off-site to recap the events of 2023 and look forward to 2024. This year’s agenda also featured several outside speakers ranging in expertise from the Russia/Ukraine war to the current health of the US economy.

        Over the course of the two days, the team identified several cross-regional trends they expect to remain prominent in 2024:

      • Unworkable Common Framework

        11 December 2023   |  

        Zambia defaulted in 2020 on its sovereign bonds and has been on an unrelenting quest to restructure its debt since. While finding itself in distress is not notable, the country’s plan to find its way out may be. Zambia serves as the first meaningful test of the Common Framework—a Group of 20 (G20) initiative to simplify and accelerate the sovereign debt restructuring process. In a perfect world, this initiative should create a quick and successful resolution for Zambia and pave the way for other emerging economies seeking debt-relief. Unfortunately, as we know all too well, the world is far from perfect.

      • Is Argentina Out Of The Woods Yet?

        21 November 2023   |  

        On Sunday, November 19, Argentina elected Javier Milei to be its next president in a decisive run-off election. Radical libertarian outsider, Milei, defeated Sergio Massa, the country’s Minister of Economy since August 2022. Voters, investors, and business owners are hopeful Milei’s libertarian policies, which are a drastic divergence from the current policies, will aid Argentina’s recession-prone economy. The country is currently facing inflation topping 140%, interest rates at 130%, dwindling central bank reserves, and a weakening currency regime. However, the grass may not be greener on the other side. Implementing Milei’s policies will be a challenge without a congressional majority, and his abrupt, “chainsaw” approach may backfire. Even Taylor Swift's Eras Tour, which visited Buenos Aires last week, could not boost this economy—is there anything that can?!

      • Nigeria’s New President: We Hear The Talk, But Where Is The Walk?

        08 November 2023   |  

        President Bola Tinubu won Nigeria’s presidential election in February 2023 and was faced with the seemingly impossible task of improving the battered economy he inherited. While the legitimacy of Tinubu’s win was contested by many voters, investors welcomed the new administration with open arms as key tenants of Tinubu’s campaign rested on making Nigeria a friendlier investment destination. Tinubu wasted no time getting to work, but a few months into his term, he was falling flat on his promises… or at least that is what it seemed. So, the EMsights team traveled to Nigeria twice in the past few months to learn more!

      • What "Kenya" Do?

        13 June 2023   |  

        Kenya’s fundamentals today may be the most exciting they’ve been in decades. Following a peaceful election last August, President Ruto’s new administration has continuously expressed commitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reform that will improve the sovereign’s credit quality. Kenya is supported by the international community, which wants to help fund its success—as most recently evidenced by the IMF’s announcement it will extend further aid to the country (more on which shortly).  So what gives—why do Kenyan asset prices tell such a different story?

      • Emerging Markets Debt: Beyond the Benchmarks

        15 May 2023   |  

        The macroeconomic backdrop in emerging markets has been uncertain for some time now—indeed, if anything, uncertainty seems to be increasing. War continues in Ukraine, inflation globally remains sticky (particularly core inflation) and, consequently, global monetary policy is, overall tilted toward tightening (relatedly, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a surprise hike in early May). And at least partially thanks to tighter monetary policy (which is ongoing, with both the Fed and ECB raising rates again at their recent May meetings), some things have broken—e.g., we’ve seen a cryptocurrency winter, trouble with UK pension funds, concern about global real estate and, most recently, bank failures in the US and Europe.

      • Easter-Egg Hunting: IMF Edition

        02 May 2023   |  

        EMsights team members returned to Washington, D.C., in April for the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, conducting some 200 interactions with a swath of government officials and representatives. Frequent readers will recall we similarly attended the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings last fall—and were unsurprised by the somber mood, given ongoing macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

      • Let Freedom Ring

        09 March 2023   |  

        EMsights Capital Group believes that economic and political freedoms and rule of law are important precursors for the economic development, growth, education and sustainability of sovereign countries. Through active due diligence, including on-the-ground country visits, in-person meetings with political, business and government officials, and daily monitoring of political and financial news, we actively follow a country’s pursuit and execution of fair and free elections, civil liberties, functioning of government, and the importance it places on economic freedom in real-time – in both its rhetoric as well as its enforcement of these principles.