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EM’s Uninvited Guest: US Duration
Investors often allocate to emerging markets debt to capture compelling stories of growth, reform and opportunity in developing economies. Yet, all too often, these carefully chosen EM exposures are overshadowed by movements in US Treasury yields. It’s a frustrating reality that can significantly amplify volatility in the asset class’s returns, and recent weeks have offered a reminder of just how powerful this effect can be.
Senegal: Things are not Always What They Seem
In March 2024, Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye were elected with a promise of radical change. Their campaign, which centered on social justice and national sovereignty, resonated with a population facing high living costs and rising unemployment. Following his inauguration in April, President Faye initiated a comprehensive review of the country’s financial situation. The findings, released in late September, raised significant concerns, and suggest that Senegal’s fiscal health may be more precarious than previously believed.Read More
Sri Lanka’s Happily Ever After?
Sri Lanka’s September presidential election was a watershed moment. The left-leaning political outsider, Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), was elected as the 9th President of Sri Lanka. AKD’s rise reflects the electorate’s desire for change, following the 2022 crisis which doubled the poverty rate and shrunk the middle class. His platform appealed to voters by promising to curb corruption and provide tax relief, but also antagonized markets by proposing fiscally irresponsible tax exemptions and challenging Eurobond restructuring negotiations – raising serious concerns about economic stability.
Economic Minesweeper: October 2024 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings
Policy makers, government officials and members of the emerging markets debt investment community descended on Washington DC last week for the fall IMF meetings. Over the course of the week, the EMsights team conducted over 100 meetings and actively engaged in conversations with a diverse array of representatives and leaders.Read More
TajikiSTAR
Surrounded by emerging market darlings Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, Tajikistan often goes overlooked by investors. Our team recently traveled to Dushanbe, and we found it timely to provide an update on the country’s macroeconomic outlook.
Pension Tension
Uruguay is heading towards a pivotal vote on October 27th, but it’s not just about electing the next president. This time, voters will also weigh in on a plebiscite that could reshape the nation’s pension system—backtracking on key reforms passed in 2023.
The Battle of the NDF Trading Venues
Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) have become essential tools in emerging market investing, allowing access to emerging and frontier currencies that do not otherwise have an FX market. NDFs, unlike standard currency forwards, do not involve the physical exchange of currencies. Instead, counterparties settle the difference between the contracted NDF price and the current spot price at the maturity of the contract. Market adoption of electronic trading and central clearing in NDFs has not kept pace with other emerging market derivatives but is quickly catching up and rapidly becoming more complicated.
The Curious Case of The Bahamas Index Exclusion
The line between emerging and developed markets can often be blurred. While we advocate for a broad investment approach that encompasses a wide range of opportunities, index providers often draw a clearer distinction. This stricter approach can result in the exclusion of certain countries from the investable universe. One example is The Bahamas.
Jamaican Me Hurricane Ready, Others Should Follow
Emerging market countries must deal with a host of development issues, from social unrest to inadequate institutions and corruption. A select few face an additional natural disaster risk that can derail their development: hurricanes.
2024 EMsights Olympic Games
As world-class athletes vie for gold medals in Paris, the EMsights Capital Group is hosting its own unique competition where we celebrate standout countries in the emerging markets landscape.