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      • Documenting Your Dollar

        24 May 2024   |  

        • Investing in emerging markets debt requires an understanding of market structure that is often overlooked.

      • Sailing Towards Reform

        22 May 2024   |  

        Dominican Republic President Abinader cruised to re-election over the weekend, winning outright in the first round of voting and avoiding a run-off. While the polls heavily telegraphed the outcome in favor of Abinader, this reaffirms the country’s commitment to growth and development.

      • A Fresh Perspective on Accessing Local Currency Markets

        30 April 2024   |  

        • Supranational agency FX linked bonds were once instruments that emerging market investors avoided, but we believe developments in these bonds make them appropriate in a limited size in portfolios.

      • Scavenging for Treasure at the IMF Spring Meetings

        23 April 2024   |  

        Members of the emerging markets debt investment community descended on Washington DC last week for the spring IMF meetings. Over the course of the week, the EMsights team conducted over 100 meetings and actively engaged in conversations with a diverse range of government officials and representatives.

        Given the sell-off in emerging markets debt year to date, we entered the week expecting a decidedly bearish mood, though we were surprised to find a rather neutral outlook overall.

      • Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of… Investment Returns

        09 April 2024   |  

        EMsights Capital Group believes that economic and political freedoms and rule of law are important precursors for the economic development, growth, education and sustainability of sovereign countries. Through our on-the-ground country visits, we follow a country’s pursuit and execution of fair and free elections, civil liberties, functioning of government, and the importance it places on economic freedom.

      • US Treasury Reforms: The Crystal Ball for EM Traders

        20 March 2024   |  

        The SEC voted in December to require more US Treasury bonds to be centrally cleared in order to improve market resiliency, and it continues to propose major reforms to that market. These reforms are getting significant attention in the press and sparking a debate on financial news and social media platforms. Emerging markets investors might be forgiven for paying little attention to market structure developments in US Treasuries, but ignoring these developments is a mistake. 

      • Dare to be Different

        12 March 2024   |  

        The National Bank of Serbia opted to hold benchmark interest rates unchanged at 6.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting, citing global uncertainties and persistent inflationary pressures as the rationale. This restrictive policy is at odds with its Central European peers, some of which are already several rate cuts deep into their easing cycles, but we applaud this prudent approach for Serbia.  

        Serbian inflation fell to 5.6% year over year in February, but forecasts do not show inflation dropping into its target band of 3% +/- 1.5% for a few more months.

      • Smoke and Mirrors in South Africa

        29 February 2024   |  

        The South African government announced an unconventional strategy last week that involved tapping into its gold and foreign exchange reserves in an effort to temper its growing debt burden. While investors initially cheered this financial maneuver, we are more skeptical. Unfortunately the government announced this strategy without clearly outlining the governance of the framework. We break down the transaction and potential drawbacks below:

      • What “Kenya” Do? What Kenya Did!

        26 February 2024   |  

        Kenya’s upcoming $2 billion Eurobond payment due in June 2024 had been a cause of concern for many investors as the maturity quickly approached. However, in mid-February, a pivot in the country’s approach to raise funds quickly alleviated investors’ anxieties: Kenya successfully issued $1.5 billion through an international bond sale that was well oversubscribed, and used the cash to buy back 96% of its 2024 obligation at par. In our eyes, the government’s decision to issue was a smart move and a crucial step towards alleviating short-term risks for the country. It greatly reduces the event risk surrounding the impending Eurobond maturity and creates room for policymakers to turn their attention to a policy agenda that puts the country on a better and more sustainable path moving forward.

      • A Glimmer of Gold in the Pacific

        07 February 2024   |  

        Hiding behind the picturesque beaches, tropical rainforests, and immense coral reef biodiversity of Papua New Guinea is a precarious socio-economic situation. High unemployment, crime and a volatile political landscape often dominate the headlines of the natural-resource rich pacific nation and have hindered economic development. However, tailwinds from ongoing and prospective natural resource projects along with a recent push for fiscal reforms poise the country for an upswing and position it for increasing geopolitical importance.