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Value Recovery Instruments (VRIs), also known as warrants, are instruments that provide contingent payouts to creditors under specific scenarios. They are typically structured as call options or warrants that are tied to a state variable (such as GDP or exports), which is strongly correlated with the borrower’s ability to repay debt.

Often seen as deal “sweeteners”, VRI’s expedite debt restructurings by helping bridge the expectation gap between creditors and debtors.

Elections offer citizens the opportunity to turn the tides by prompting political, economic and social reforms. In the past week, the global stage witnessed the unfolding of three distinct electoral contests across various regions, each yielding results that may redefine the trajectories of the respective countries.

• Investing in emerging markets debt requires an understanding of market structure that is often overlooked.
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Dominican Republic President Abinader cruised to re-election over the weekend, winning outright in the first round of voting and avoiding a run-off. While the polls heavily telegraphed the outcome in favor of Abinader, this reaffirms the country’s commitment to growth and development.

• Supranational agency FX linked bonds were once instruments that emerging market investors avoided, but we believe developments in these bonds make them appropriate in a limited size in portfolios.
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Members of the emerging markets debt investment community descended on Washington DC last week for the spring IMF meetings. Over the course of the week, the EMsights team conducted over 100 meetings and actively engaged in conversations with a diverse range of government officials and representatives.

Given the sell-off in emerging markets debt year to date, we entered the week expecting a decidedly bearish mood, though we were surprised to find a rather neutral outlook overall.

EMsights Capital Group believes that economic and political freedoms and rule of law are important precursors for the economic development, growth, education and sustainability of sovereign countries. Through our on-the-ground country visits, we follow a country’s pursuit and execution of fair and free elections, civil liberties, functioning of government, and the importance it places on economic freedom.

The SEC voted in December to require more US Treasury bonds to be centrally cleared in order to improve market resiliency, and it continues to propose major reforms to that market. These reforms are getting significant attention in the press and sparking a debate on financial news and social media platforms. Emerging markets investors might be forgiven for paying little attention to market structure developments in US Treasuries, but ignoring these developments is a mistake. 

The National Bank of Serbia opted to hold benchmark interest rates unchanged at 6.5% for the eighth consecutive meeting, citing global uncertainties and persistent inflationary pressures as the rationale. This restrictive policy is at odds with its Central European peers, some of which are already several rate cuts deep into their easing cycles, but we applaud this prudent approach for Serbia.  

Serbian inflation fell to 5.6% year over year in February, but forecasts do not show inflation dropping into its target band of 3% +/- 1.5% for a few more months.

The South African government announced an unconventional strategy last week that involved tapping into its gold and foreign exchange reserves in an effort to temper its growing debt burden. While investors initially cheered this financial maneuver, we are more skeptical. Unfortunately the government announced this strategy without clearly outlining the governance of the framework. We break down the transaction and potential drawbacks below: