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In the News
Just one day into the quarter, markets are off to a rough start—likely resurfacing memories of Q4 2018 and raising questions about whether we’re in for a redux. Time will tell, of course, and in the meantime, here are some of today’s interesting headlines.
Slowing Trade Hits Global Manufacturing
The latest ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.8 in September—its lowest level since June 2009 and the second straight month of “contraction” (a number less than 50 indicates a minority of survey respondents reported growing factory orders). Many point to the ongoing US-China trade tussle as an obvious culprit. From a market standpoint, it’s worth noting the ISM manufacturing index has dipped below zero a few times during the current bull market.
Hong Kong Protester Shot by Police as National Day Demonstrations Descend Into Widespread Violence
The ongoing tension has had a noticeable impact on Hong Kong-based companies as well as the country’s local market. Many also (naturally) question the likelihood the city will remain a major financial center—which certainly depends partly on how China and Hong Kong resolve their current differences.
Japan’s New Tax Increase Tests Economy’s Strength
The last time Japan raised its consumption tax, the country fell into recession—which is possibly why PM Abe postponed this increase twice before. With no such delay this time, all eyes will be on the economic reaction. The government has taken steps aimed at mitigating any negative effect on consumption in the form of a system of “cashback reward points.”
Fed Wrestles With Role of Regulation in Repo Squeeze
Big banks are holding lots of reserves in varying amounts, and they’re each handling their hoard differently—raising some interesting questions for policymakers about the potential implications in the event of another true credit squeeze.
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