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In the News

22 August 2019   |  

Making headlines today is a variety of economic news, including more data which send contradictory messages about the expansion’s resilience. A sample:

US Existing-Home Sales Picked Up in July
Home sales’ first year-over-year increase in over a year. As ever, the devil is in the details, which economists warn paint a more mixed picture. But with mortgage rates at generational (historical, even) lows, this isn’t a terribly surprising outcome.

As the Fed Frets, Retailers Rake in Sales
Earnings season has been a mixed bag to date, with pundits issuing warnings about the potential for negative earnings. The fact that retailers have thus far been resilient (if not outright optimistic) despite the growing list of global macro concerns could be seen as a positive for US growth trajectory—particularly as some two-thirds of US GDP is attributable to individual consumption.

Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index Climbs 0.4% in July
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI)—a forward-looking indicator—rose 0.4% in July.

German Companies Signal Looming Recession After Demand Plunges
A growing number of observers are concerned about Germany’s manufacturing PMI, particularly as the country’s economy is generally considered the economic powerhouse of much of the euro zone. Recall, though, that manufacturing (and other) surveys are just that—surveys, which means they’re based on respondents’ current views that are heavily influenced by the recent past, rather than the forward-looking possibilities. Hardly a foolproof measure of future economic activity and possibly more instructive on sentiment levels than anything else. Regardless, concern about the euro zone economic outlook is rising.

Investors Pull $2.9bn From Funds Investing in China
An array of headwinds faces China, and investors are acting accordingly. That the country is known for its lack of transparency—particularly in reporting economic data—is likely further rattling nerves among those who might otherwise be willing to concede that even slower growth out of an economy as massive as China’s is still a tremendous amount of growth.  

Against this mixed backdrop, global central bankers meet in Jackson Hole, WY this week. Some worry there are few arrows left in central banks’ quivers. Others are more sanguine (particularly about the US, whose economy has been stronger). Time will naturally tell which group has been prescient.

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