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Is Argentina Out Of The Woods Yet?
On Sunday, November 19, Argentina elected Javier Milei to be its next president in a decisive run-off election. Radical libertarian outsider, Milei, defeated Sergio Massa, the country’s Minister of Economy since August 2022. Voters, investors, and business owners are hopeful Milei’s libertarian policies, which are a drastic divergence from the current policies, will aid Argentina’s recession-prone economy. The country is currently facing inflation topping 140%, interest rates at 130%, dwindling central bank reserves, and a weakening currency regime. However, the grass may not be greener on the other side. Implementing Milei’s policies will be a challenge without a congressional majority, and his abrupt, “chainsaw” approach may backfire. Even Taylor Swift's Eras Tour, which visited Buenos Aires last week, could not boost this economy—is there anything that can?!
Narrow Leadership Creates Opportunity
The US equity market’s narrow leadership in 2023 is well chronicled, but it’s nearly impossible to overstate. The “Magnificent Seven”, as the largest seven US stocks have been dubbed, have dominated YTD equity returns—contributing, in effect, 100% of the S&P 500 Index’s total return (through October).
These seven stocks have returned on average 84%, compared to -3% for the “S&P 493”, and more than half of S&P 500 stocks have generated negative returns. In fact, the equal-weight S&P 500® Index is lagging the market-cap weighted S&P 500 by the most since 1998 as the S&P 500 Index is up over 10%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down ~2% through October.Read More
Nigeria’s New President: We Hear The Talk, But Where Is The Walk?
President Bola Tinubu won Nigeria’s presidential election in February 2023 and was faced with the seemingly impossible task of improving the battered economy he inherited. While the legitimacy of Tinubu’s win was contested by many voters, investors welcomed the new administration with open arms as key tenants of Tinubu’s campaign rested on making Nigeria a friendlier investment destination. Tinubu wasted no time getting to work, but a few months into his term, he was falling flat on his promises… or at least that is what it seemed. So, the EMsights team traveled to Nigeria twice in the past few months to learn more!
Antero Peak Group Reads
In the spirit of continuous improvement, the Antero Peak Group actively reads to further develop perspectives on financial markets and investing, leadership and life experiences. Please see a list of books that have challenged our thinking over the last several years.