Important Information
This information is provided for general educational purposes only without regard to your particular investment needs. This material, including any attachments or hyperlinks, should not be taken as investment or tax advice of any kind whatsoever (whether impartial or otherwise) on which you may rely for your investment decisions, nor be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for any investment strategy, product or service. Investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before making investments in order to determine the appropriateness of any investment discussed herein.
Material authored by any particular Artisan Partners individual or team represents their own views and opinions, which may or may not reflect the views and opinions of Artisan Partners, including its autonomous investment teams or associates. Statements are based on current market conditions and other factors, which are as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. While this information is believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in the discussion.
All investments are subject to risk, which includes potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This material may reference index or other information that is subject to copyright by its respective service provider, including the following: MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. The herein referenced S&P index ("Index") is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI") and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use. Copyright © 2024 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"). None of S&P DJI, Dow Jones, their affiliates or third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and none shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. Source ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission. ICE Data Indices, LLC permits use of the ICE BofAML indices and related data on an "as is" basis, makes no warranties regarding same, does not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of the ICE BofAML indices or any data included in, related to, or derived therefrom, assumes no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing, and does not sponsor, endorse, or recommend Artisan Partners or any of its products or services.
© 2024 Artisan Partners. All rights reserved.
The Folly of Forecasting
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”
—Yogi Berra
Given it’s that time of year when Wall Street’s market strategists trot out their year ahead outlooks, we thought we might share our thoughts on the value of forecasting or perhaps the lack thereof. If the following sampling of prior year outlooks for CY2022 are any gauge, we doubt next year’s predictions are worth the paper they’re printed on.
Inflation Communication Breakdown
The decision-making process and subsequent market reaction to central bank actions largely dictated financial headlines over the past few weeks. As a recap, the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England all implemented 75 basis point rate hikes. These increases came in an effort to stave off persistently high inflation prints in their regions, including 9.9%, 8.2% and 10.1% annualized rates of inflation in September, respectively.
Lula—Take 2: Lula Victorious in Brazilian Presidential Election
Following a tightly contested race, Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, October 30 resulted in victory for former President (2003-2011) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (or “Lula”) of the Workers’ Party and subsequent defeat for right-wing incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro. Lula amassed more than 60 million votes for the most in the country’s history to defeat Bolsonaro by less than 2% in Brazil’s tightest finish on record.