The material contained on Artisan Canvas represents the views and opinions of the authors. Material written by any particular individual may or may not reflect the views and opinions of Artisan Partners or its associates. The material contained on this site may contain forward-looking statements regarding future events and future performance, as well as management’s current expectations, beliefs, plans, estimates, or projections. Forward-looking statements regarding Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. and its subsidiaries are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those factors described within “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019, filed with the SEC on February 18, 2020, as such factors may be updated from time to time. The views and opinions expressed in this material are based on market conditions as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. While this information is believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in the discussion.
This website does not constitute an offer or recommendation by Artisan Partners of securities or services to, or a solicitation by Artisan Partners of an offer of services or to buy, sell or hold securities. Artisan Partners and the authors noted herein may have financial interests, through investment vehicles or personal investments, in any themes, trends, companies or securities discussed. Materials on this website are informational only and should not be taken as investment recommendation or advice of any kind whatsoever (whether impartial or otherwise). Investing is subject to risks, which include the potential for fluctuations in investment value and loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used to create indices or financial products. This report is not approved or produced by MSCI. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. The herein referenced S&P index(es) ("Index") is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC ("S&P DJI") and/or its affiliates and has been licensed for use. Copyright © 2023 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global, Inc. All rights reserved. Redistribution or reproduction in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. S&P® is a registered trademark of S&P Global and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"). None of S&P DJI, Dow Jones, their affiliates or third party licensors make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the ability of any index to accurately represent the asset class or market sector that it purports to represent and none shall have any liability for any errors, omissions, or interruptions of any index or the data included therein. Source ICE Data Indices, LLC, used with permission. ICE Data Indices, LLC permits use of the ICE BofAML indices and related data on an "as is" basis, makes no warranties regarding same, does not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of the ICE BofAML indices or any data included in, related to, or derived therefrom, assumes no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing, and does not sponsor, endorse, or recommend Artisan Partners or any of its products or services.
© 2023 Artisan Partners. All rights reserved.
The Importance of Profit Growth in Equity Returns
There is frequent debate among market participants about which style factors will be in favor in the future: growth, value, momentum, active, passive, etc. While we do not possess the ability to pinpoint the timing of when one style may be in favor over another, we believe the key element in determining the future path of a share price over the duration of an economic cycle is highly dependent on knowing which way profits are headed.
Trade Uncertainty on the Rise
The likelihood of a second trade deal this year with China appears to have materially faded—if it’s not off the table altogether. President Trump recently relayed he isn’t currently focused on a phase-two deal. To be fair, a phase-two deal may have already been dead in the water for 2020, given the next round of negotiations was intended to aim at some of the bigger bones of contention between the US and China. Then, too, Beijing officials have long stated their preference for a wait-and-see approach to ongoing negotiations—pending the US’s November election outcome. But now, it seems an even longer-term delay is possible—with potentially significant global ramifications.
There’s A New Question About Inflation
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has declined for three straight months and is up just 0.1% over the past year, paints a picture of stagnant inflation. But ask any pit master about meat prices this summer, and they’ll point to some noticeable price surges. Meanwhile, gasoline has seldom been cheaper. Of course, any summer travel plans were probably canceled due to the pandemic. And that’s not necessarily a trivial point—because, while headline inflation numbers always mask some important facts about what’s happening with prices in the components, the pandemic’s rapid effects on consumption patterns may be altering some of these nuances in more fundamental ways.
Brexit: The UK Decides Not to Let It Linger
In June, Brexit hit a rather inauspicious milestone, marking the four-year anniversary of the vote to split from the European Union but with little to show for it practically: While the UK has separated in spirit, it remains economically linked to the EU. However, with the UK Cabinet Office confirming that EU trade talks would not extend through next year, the breakup now has a firm date. What remains less clear is how trade will flow between the two regions moving forward.