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There is frequent debate among market participants about which style factors will be in favor in the future: growth, value, momentum, active, passive, etc. While we do not possess the ability to pinpoint the timing of when one style may be in favor over another, we believe the key element in determining the future path of a share price over the duration of an economic cycle is highly dependent on knowing which way profits are headed.
The likelihood of a second trade deal this year with China appears to have materially faded—if it’s not off the table altogether. President Trump recently relayed he isn’t currently focused on a phase-two deal. To be fair, a phase-two deal may have already been dead in the water for 2020, given the next round of negotiations was intended to aim at some of the bigger bones of contention between the US and China. Then, too, Beijing officials have long stated their preference for a wait-and-see approach to ongoing negotiations—pending the US’s November election outcome. But now, it seems an even longer-term delay is possible—with potentially significant global ramifications.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has declined for three straight months and is up just 0.1% over the past year, paints a picture of stagnant inflation. But ask any pit master about meat prices this summer, and they’ll point to some noticeable price surges. Meanwhile, gasoline has seldom been cheaper. Of course, any summer travel plans were probably canceled due to the pandemic. And that’s not necessarily a trivial point—because, while headline inflation numbers always mask some important facts about what’s happening with prices in the components, the pandemic’s rapid effects on consumption patterns may be altering some of these nuances in more fundamental ways.
In June, Brexit hit a rather inauspicious milestone, marking the four-year anniversary of the vote to split from the European Union but with little to show for it practically: While the UK has separated in spirit, it remains economically linked to the EU. However, with the UK Cabinet Office confirming that EU trade talks would not extend through next year, the breakup now has a firm date. What remains less clear is how trade will flow between the two regions moving forward.